Regions will eventually become too hot for traditionally grown grapes.
If you make wine, are a wine aficionado, or just know a lot about the delicious beverage, then you are probably aware that there are several factors that go into making a good wine: grape variety, harvesting practices, a vineyard’s slope and aspect (orientation), soil, climate, and so on. All of these unique combinations are called a wine’s terroir, or in other words, a way to specify its region of growth.
But the weather also plays an important role. In France and Switzerland, many of the best grape growing years are traditionally those with abundant spring rains followed by an exceptionally hot summer and late-season drought. This blend of weather drives grape vines to grow a robust and fast-maturing fruit, bringing an early harvest.
However, a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, has shown that a warming climate has largely removed the drought factor from the early-harvest equation, and that it is pushing wines into unchartered territory. And although it may be good news for wines right now, it likely won’t have a positive effect in the long term.
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Temperature is the main driver of grape-harvest timing, and in the last 30 years, progressive warming has pushed harvest dates across the globe, from California to Europe, forward an unprecedented two weeks.
However, even though earlier harvests often mean some really good wine years, existing studies suggest that these regions will eventually become too hot for traditionally grown grapes. Vineyards may have to switch to hotter-climate varieties, change traditional harvesting methods, move, or go out of business.
In the new study, scientists analyzed 20th- and 21st-century weather data, temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, as well as vineyard records going back to 1600. They showed that, in areas of France and Switzerland, early harvests always required both above-average air temperatures and late-season drought, which pushes temperatures just enough to pass the early-harvest threshold.
According to the authors, in the 1980s the climate was such that vineyards could never get hot enough for an early harvest without the help of a drought. However, warming alone has pushed summer temperatures over the threshold without the help of a drought. France has warmed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) during the 20th century, and the upward climb has continued.
“Now, it's become so warm thanks to climate change, grape growers don't need drought to get these very warm temperatures,” lead author Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said in a press release.
Study co-author Elizabeth Wolkovich, an ecologist at Harvard University, said in the press release that this change has not hurt the wine industry yet: “So far, a good year is a hot year.” However, in 2003, when a deadly heat wave struck Europe, resulting in the grapes being picked a full month early — the wines were not particularly great.
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“That may be a good indicator of where we're headed,” she said. “If we keep pushing the heat up, vineyards can't maintain that forever.”
Research has shown that each degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming pushes grape harvests forward six or seven days. A 2013 study projected that by 2050, some two-thirds of today’s wine regions may no longer be suitable for the grapes they now grow. However, they could possibly be relocated. For example, grapes no longer capable of growing in California’s Napa Valley could be better suited in Washington, and southern England may become the new Champagne.
"If people are willing to drink Italian varieties grown in France and Pinot Noir from Germany, maybe we can adapt," said Wolkovich in the press release.
However, many people are questioning whether these vineyards can just be picked up and moved. Since the earth is increasingly crowded with agriculture and infrastructure, there may not be any room left for the wine grapes. Plus, there is no way these wines could keep their current unique terroir.
Not even wine is safe from climate change!
